Reading the chart
Support and resistance
49.7%
of 27,125 arrivals at a level went the textbook way, against 50% for chance. Only the resistance breakout departs from it.
Read and practise →Channels
82%
of rising and falling channels ended up breaking against their trend. Bouncing off their lines stayed at chance.
Read and practise →Chart patterns
Head and shoulders
52.3%
of 44 patterns went in favour, against 50% for chance. With so few cases the margin is ±15 points: knowing when it fails is the edge.
Read and practise →Flags and pennants
53.6%
of 673 carried on in the direction of the pole. The same breakout without a pole, 49.3%: what helps is the pole.
Read and practise →Triangles
32.6%
of ascending triangles broke out upwards, as the textbook says. After the breakout, 52.4% followed through.
Read and practise →Indicators
Risk
How we measure
Every study uses the same method, so they can be compared with each other:
- Data: 1-hour BTC, ETH and SOL candles since 1 January 2021.
- No looking at the future: each pattern or signal is detected with fixed rules using only the candles known at that moment, and the rules are fixed before seeing the results.
- One common measure: from the close of the candle where you decide, two bands at ±1.5 times the average hourly volatility (ATR), and which one price touches first within the next 48 hours.
- Always next to chance: the same measure at random hours in the same data. With the margin (±) of the 95% confidence interval.
- In their real proportion: the practice cases are picked at random, without keeping the pretty ones.
Most of what textbooks say lands close to 50%. That does not mean there is nothing to learn: it means what you train is something else. Reading the context, waiting for confirmation, placing the stop where the idea stops making sense and riding out the streaks with a small size.