What happened in the real data
We looked for every arrival of price at a level on 1-hour BTC, ETH and SOL candles from January 1, 2021 to October 19, 2026: about 152,000 hours of market. There were 27,125 arrivals. Unlike chart patterns, cases here are plentiful: levels are everywhere.
To see what happened we use the same measure as all of Kronochart: from the close of the candle that reaches the level, two bands are set at 1.5 times the average hourly volatility (14-candle ATR), and we check which one price hits first within the next 48 hours. In favour means hitting first the band the theory expects for that reading.
1-hour Binance candles. Data computed on October 19, 2026. Not counted: 157 cases where both bands were hit within the same hour.
| Reading | Cases | In favour | Chance | Difference |
| Support holds (rise expected) | 11,998 | 48.5% | 49.6% | −1.1 points |
| Support breaks (drop expected) | 1,610 | 51.7% | 50.4% | +1.3 points |
| Resistance holds (drop expected) | 11,919 | 49.9% | 50.4% | −0.5 points |
| Resistance breaks (rise expected) | 1,598 | 54.5% | 49.6% | +4.9 points |
| All | 27,125 | 49.7% | 50.0% | −0.3 points |
The chance column is what happened at more than 30,000 arbitrary moments in the same data, measured the same way, with the same mix of expected rises and drops as each row.
How to read it:
- Overall, levels did not anticipate direction: 49.7% against 50.0% for chance, with so many cases that the margin of error is only ±0.6 points. The same in BTC (49.7%), ETH (49.6%) and SOL (49.7%).
- Buying at support that holds, the most popular reading, came out slightly below chance: 48.5% against 49.6% (±0.9 points).
- The only reading that clearly stood apart from chance was a resistance breakout: when a candle closed above, price kept rising 54.5% of the time against 49.6% (±2.4 points). A small edge and, like any statistic of the past, it may not repeat.
- More touches did not help: two-touch levels went in favour 49.9% of the time and three-or-more-touch levels 49.4%.
This does not mean levels are useless: they organise the chart, show where an idea is invalidated and where to place the stop. What the data says is that, on their own, they do not tell where price will go. Figures are recomputed whenever the data grows.
Test yourself with 3 real cases
Three arrivals picked at random from all of them, in their real proportion of hits and misses. You will see the chart up to the candle that reaches the level, with the zone marked (it was known at that moment), and no date. Decide and see what happened.
Common mistakes
- Drawing levels in hindsight. On a finished chart there is always a line that "worked". Draw only with what could be seen at the time.
- Thinking in exact lines. Levels are zones: price rarely stops at the same cent.
- Taking the bounce for granted. Buying at support is the most repeated reading and, in this data, it did not beat chance.
- Believing more touches is safer. In the data, a level with many touches behaved no better than one with two.
- Mistaking a wick for a breakout. A breakout is a close on the other side of the zone, not a spike that comes back.
Managing risk with levels
- Use the level to decide where your idea is invalidated: a little beyond the zone, not right on it, where stops tend to get hit.
- Size the position from that distance, so a miss costs a small, fixed part of the account.
- With leverage, check that the liquidation price is well beyond the stop.
- Compare what you risk with what you expect to gain. If the next level is closer than your stop, the trade does not pay even if you are right half the time.
Check what you have learned
Five questions about this article. Each answer is marked straight away and explained.
Knowing the theory is half of it. The other half is spotting levels on a real chart and deciding. Test yourself with 3 real cases or sharpen your reading in sessions of 10 on Kronochart.
Frequently asked questions
What is support?
A price zone where several earlier drops stopped. Theory expects a bounce when price comes back, and further falls if it breaks.
What is resistance?
A zone where several earlier rises stopped. Theory expects a turn down on arrival, and further gains if price closes above it.
Do they work?
In 27,125 real arrivals in BTC, ETH and SOL since 2021 they went the way the theory says 49.7% of the time, against 50.0% for chance. Only a resistance breakout stood somewhat apart from chance.
Is a level with more touches stronger?
Not in this data: those with three or more touches went in favour 49.4% of the time and two-touch ones 49.9%.
Does broken support become resistance?
That is the role-reversal idea. It is a common reading, but it is worth checking case by case rather than taking it for granted.
Sharpen your reading of levels
On Kronochart, automatic support and resistance is in the free plan. You can review arrivals at levels in sessions of 10, with your own chart, polish what fails and check over the months whether your reading beats chance.
Practise with real moments